Dr Paul Ritchie
Emergent Constraints & Tipping Points workshop
In November 2020 we hosted an online collaborative workshop to bring together Climate Scientists, Mathematicians and Ecologists to answer key questions around the relationships between the variability and sensitivity of the Earth System and its subcomponents. The first part of the workshop discussed proposed emergent constraints on future projections, many of which are based-on assumed relationships between sensitivity and variability. The second part of the workshop examined potential climate tipping points, in both observational data and climate model projections. The programme is given below and recordings of the presentations can be found using the links attached to the talk titles:
Emergent Constraints Presentations
Monday 23rd November
16:00 – 16:15: Peter Cox & Mark Williamson: Welcome and introduction to the workshop
16:15 – 16:45: Manuel Schlund: Emergent constraints on ECS and carbon cycle feedbacks in CMIP6
16:45 – 17:00: James Annan: What can we learn about climate sensitivity from interannual variability?
17:00 – 17:15: Rebecca Varney: A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming
17:15 – 17:30: Nick Watkins: On Generalized Langevin Dynamics and the Modelling of Global Mean Temperature
17:30 – 18:00: Break
18:00 – 18:30: Peter Caldwell: Evaluating and combining emergent constraints for climate sensitivity
18:30 – 18:45: Benjamin Sanderson: Addressing structural errors in emergent constraints
18:45 – 19:00: Aurélien Ribes: Making climate projections conditional on historical observations
Tuesday 24th November
16:00 – 16:30: Femke Nijsse: Emergent constraints on transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
16:30 – 16:45: Tim Palmer: Very short-range prediction skill as an emergent constraint
16:45 – 17:00: Kasia Tokarska: Observational and emergent constraints on future warming in CMIP6 models
17:00 – 17:15: Richard Wood: Does recent warming constrain long term climate sensitivity?
17:15 – 17:30: Ryan Padrón: Controls of land carbon sink projections from CMIP6 models
17:30 – 18:00: Break
18:00 – 18:15: Jens Terhaar: Emergent constraints on the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake
18:15 – 18:45: Chad Thackeray: Assessing prior emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback in CMIP6
18:45 – 19:00: Nicholas Lutsko: Do Low Cloud-Based Emergent Constraints Fail in CMIP6?
Tipping Points Presentations
Wednesday 25th November
14:00 – 14:30: Marten Scheffer: Lost Attraction: tipping humans
14:30 – 14:45: Joe Clarke: The Compost Bomb in the Continuum Limit
14:45 – 15:00: Eoin O’Sullivan: Non-Obvious Thresholds in the Compost Bomb Model
15:00 – 15:15: Niklas Boers: Precursor signals for abrupt transitions in Earth system dynamics
15:15 – 15:45: Break
15:45 – 16:15: Ulrike Feudel: How to study tipping phenomena in highly multistable systems?
16:15 – 16:45: Ricarda Winkelmann: Beyond gradual change: Tipping points in Antarctica
16:45 – 17:00: Paul Ritchie: Overshooting Tipping Point Thresholds in A Changing Climate
Thursday 26th November
14:00 – 14:30: Peter Ditlevsen: What we learn about tipping points from past climate and models
14:30 – 14:45: Frank Kwasniok: Data-driven modelling and prediction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse
14:45 – 15:00: Johannes Lohmann: Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt
15:00 – 15:15: Hassan Alkhayuon: Phase-sensitive tipping: cyclic ecosystems subject to contemporary climate
15:15 – 15:30: Cris Hasan: Spatiotemporal stability of travelling waves in a Rock-Paper-Scissors model
15:30 – 16:00: Break
16:00 – 16:30: Tim Lenton: Tipping positive change
16:30 – 16:45: Nico Wunderling: Network dynamics of drought-induced tipping cascades in the Amazon rainforest
16:45 – 17:00: Concluding Remarks (Peter Cox)